JGB futures rise but trim gains before 5-yr auction
* But gains were limited as market participants were
reluctant to chase prices higher ahead of a five-year JGB
auction on Tuesday and a 20-year sale on Thursday.* “The focus remains on Europe and how the market moves all
depends on the EU summit. With quickly changing market
sentiment, volatility is rising. In such an environment, I don’t
think investors want to take risks in any asset class,” said
Shogo Fujita, chief Japan bond strategist at Bank of America
Merrill Lynch.* The 10-year JGB yield was flat at 1.020,
off a two-week high of 1.025 percent hit on Monday.* Superlongs such as 20- and 30-year bonds underperformed,
weighed as losses in share prices were smaller than initial
expectations and by hedge selling before the auctions, a market
participant at a Japanese brokerage said.The 20-year yield inched up 0.5 basis point
to 1.750 percent, marking a fresh one-month high.* December 10-year JGB futures were up 0.03 point
at 142.20 after rising as high as 142.30, recovering to the
level of their five-day moving average at 142.26 for the first
time in about a week.* The Ministry of Finance reopened the 0.4 percent coupon
No. 99 five-year JGBs for the first time for Tuesday’s auction
of the maturity, with an offer amount of 2.4 trillion yen ($31
billion). It will announce the auction results at 12:45 p.m.
(0345 GMT).* The auction will likely be supported as the sector looks
attractive on the yield curve and the Bank of Japan is expected
to keep its easy monetary policy, although some investors may
hold off from buying due to worries about supply increases to
help fund reconstruction from the March earthquake, analysts
said.
JGB futures rise but trim gains before 5-yr auction
* But gains were limited as market participants were
reluctant to chase prices higher ahead of a five-year JGB
auction on Tuesday and a 20-year sale on Thursday.* “The focus remains on Europe and how the market moves all
depends on the EU summit. With quickly changing market
sentiment, volatility is rising. In such an environment, I don’t
think investors want to take risks in any asset class,” said
Shogo Fujita, chief Japan bond strategist at Bank of America
Merrill Lynch.* The 10-year JGB yield was flat at 1.020,
off a two-week high of 1.025 percent hit on Monday.* Superlongs such as 20- and 30-year bonds underperformed,
weighed as losses in share prices were smaller than initial
expectations and by hedge selling before the auctions, a market
participant at a Japanese brokerage said.The 20-year yield inched up 0.5 basis point
to 1.750 percent, marking a fresh one-month high.* December 10-year JGB futures were up 0.03 point
at 142.20 after rising as high as 142.30, recovering to the
level of their five-day moving average at 142.26 for the first
time in about a week.* The Ministry of Finance reopened the 0.4 percent coupon
No. 99 five-year JGBs for the first time for Tuesday’s auction
of the maturity, with an offer amount of 2.4 trillion yen ($31
billion). It will announce the auction results at 12:45 p.m.
(0345 GMT).* The auction will likely be supported as the sector looks
attractive on the yield curve and the Bank of Japan is expected
to keep its easy monetary policy, although some investors may
hold off from buying due to worries about supply increases to
help fund reconstruction from the March earthquake, analysts
said.
JGB futures rise but trim gains before 5-yr auction
* But gains were limited as market participants were
reluctant to chase prices higher ahead of a five-year JGB
auction on Tuesday and a 20-year sale on Thursday.* “The focus remains on Europe and how the market moves all
depends on the EU summit. With quickly changing market
sentiment, volatility is rising. In such an environment, I don’t
think investors want to take risks in any asset class,” said
Shogo Fujita, chief Japan bond strategist at Bank of America
Merrill Lynch.* The 10-year JGB yield was flat at 1.020,
off a two-week high of 1.025 percent hit on Monday.* Superlongs such as 20- and 30-year bonds underperformed,
weighed as losses in share prices were smaller than initial
expectations and by hedge selling before the auctions, a market
participant at a Japanese brokerage said.The 20-year yield inched up 0.5 basis point
to 1.750 percent, marking a fresh one-month high.* December 10-year JGB futures were up 0.03 point
at 142.20 after rising as high as 142.30, recovering to the
level of their five-day moving average at 142.26 for the first
time in about a week.* The Ministry of Finance reopened the 0.4 percent coupon
No. 99 five-year JGBs for the first time for Tuesday’s auction
of the maturity, with an offer amount of 2.4 trillion yen ($31
billion). It will announce the auction results at 12:45 p.m.
(0345 GMT).* The auction will likely be supported as the sector looks
attractive on the yield curve and the Bank of Japan is expected
to keep its easy monetary policy, although some investors may
hold off from buying due to worries about supply increases to
help fund reconstruction from the March earthquake, analysts
said.
PREVIEW-Canada Sept inflation rate seen at 3.1 pct
REUTERS FORECASTS Sept Aug ForecastrangeHeadline CPI m/m +0.2 pct +0.3 pctHeadline CPI yr/yr +3.1 pct +3.1 pct +2.8 pctto +3.2 pctCore CPI m/m +0.2 pct +0.4 pctCore CPI yr/yr +2.0 pct +1.9 pct +1.5 pctto +2.1 pctFACTORS TO WATCH:If the forecasts are correct, headline inflation will
remain above the Bank of Canada’s target range of 1 percent to
3 percent. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like
gasoline and some food, is in the center of the target.In normal times, this would the central bank under
considerable pressure to raise rates to keep inflation from
spinning out of control in coming quarters.But BoC Governor Mark Carney, and markets for that matter,
are more focused on growth than on inflation, given unease over
Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and signs of weak demand for
Canadian goods from the key U.S. market.The bank has signaled it is in no rush to hike rates from
their ultra-low rate of 1 percent, even if inflation looks
high.MARKET IMPACT:With investors focused on Europe and fears of contagion
into the global banking system, it may take a sharp jump in
inflation to alter expectations that the Bank of Canada will
hold its key interest rate unchanged at 1 percent until the
second half of 2012.An unexpected jump in the rate could support the Canadian
dollar and hurt bonds.Lower-than-expected inflation could prompt some to see a
rate cut as a more serious option for the central bank’s next
move, dampening the value of the currency.The overnight index swap market is now pricing in the
possibility of a rate decrease, although economists still
expect the next move to be an increase.
Gross’ PIMCO makes a big move into mortgages
Gross increased mortgage debt to 38 percent of assets in
his $242 billion PIMCO Total Return Fund in
September, from 32 percent in August, as the U.S. central bank
announced last month that it “will now reinvest principal
payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency
mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed
securities.”PIMCO’s latest bet on mortgages isn’t going unnoticed.Gross, who helps oversee $1.2 trillion as co-chief
investment officer at PIMCO, made headlines earlier this year
and came under heavy criticism when the manager widely known as
the “bond king” bet heavily against U.S. Treasuries — one of
the biggest outperformers of this year.His move into mortgage-backed securities also comes as the
PIMCO Total Return fund’s cash equivalents and money-market
securities fell to negative 19 percent September, from negative
9 percent in August.In having a so-called negative position in cash equivalents
and money-market securities, it is an indication of derivative
use and short-term securities being put up as collateral as a
way to boost leverage and increase the fund’s holdings in bonds
with longer maturities such as mortgage-backed securities,
Treasuries and corporate bonds, according to Eric Jacobson,
director of fixed-income research at Morningstar who has
covered PIMCO for more than a decade.Over the years, some analysts in the fixed-income world
have pointed out that Gross’ use of derivatives to boost
leverage and exposure to higher-yielding assets is what
distinguishes the Total Return Fund from an ordinary plain
vanilla bond fund.”One very basic thing to know, too, is that PIMCO
classifies anything with a duration of one year or shorter as
cash — regardless of sector,” Jacobson added.Jacobson said after careful examination of the PIMCO fund’s
effective duration of 7.14 years — about double over the last
six months — “it doesn’t necessarily mean PIMCO raised their
pure interest-rate risk to the United States. They didn’t
double down on Treasuries.”Rather, PIMCO took on “loose” interest rate risk to other
credit and government markets, he said, noting that the Total
Return fund increased exposure in non-U.S. developed and
emerging markets securities in September.Duration is a bond’s sensitivity to interest rate
fluctuations, and going longer duration is an investment
strategy when rates are expected to remain low or drop further
and vice versa.All told, the PIMCO Total Return fund’s bad call on
Treasuries earlier this year has cost it.It is up only 1.06 percent year to date versus the
benchmark BarCap U.S. Aggregate Index which is up 3.99 percent.
But on a three-year basis, the fund is up 10.14 percent against
the benchmark’s 9.36 percent returns. The fund has also held up
well over the last five years, with the fund up 7.80 percent
versus the BarCap’s 5.48 percent returns.
Rock City Club opens doors on Web for aspiring bands
Rockcityclub.com launches October 14, dubbing itself a “social music network” with aggressive plans to consolidate services such as artist development, promotion and distribution into a one-stop shop integrated with Facebook, Twitter and other social media.Jack Wishna, who has previously brokered Las Vegas concert deals for the likes of Michael Jackson and Britney Spears and is chief executive of Rock City Club parent company Rockrena, told Reuters the site is designed to create tomorrow’s music stars rather than simply identify them.”Everyone looks at discovering talent these days from what they see,” said Wishna. “They see ‘American Idol.’ They see ‘The X-Factor.’ They see ‘The Voice’ and MySpace and YouTube. It’s a crowded field, and all they do is look for the needle in the haystack. What we do, in essence, is take care of the haystack.”Rock City Club’s ambitious platform takes a broad approach to developing artists online. Performers register via Facebook or Twitter and gain access to applications that help organize and distribute music, raise their profile among potential fans and allow them to interact with listeners.As artists gain a following, Rock City plans to offer the most popular performers a chance to stream live shows and compete for a performance contract at the Palms Resort and Casino in Las Vegas. Selected artists also get coached by the “Producer’s Circle,” a group of on-staff advisors whose credits include songs for Madonna and Aerosmith.OLD SCHOOL, ONLINEWishna initially formed the idea with the late Don Kirshner, the famed music promoter and producer who helped launch the careers of Carole King and Neil Diamond. Rock City Club wants to merge new Web technology with Kirshner’s old-school approach to developing potential stars by working with talent that might not fit the reality TV mold.”American Idol rates popularity,” he said. “We are going to focus on core values like stage presence, talent and marketability that have made big names in the past,” he said.Fans can make money, too. If invited, a widget is placed on their Facebook page allowing friends to hear music from bands they support. When people purchase individual tracks online, the fan will receive 25 percent of the profits from each sale.Rock City Club, which charges a $12.95 monthly user fee, already has significant competition. ReverbNation, established in 2006, includes many of the same social media components at no charge, although it also has a “premium” package with more features at an additional cost.Additionally, MySpace recently recruited Justin Timberlake to help their rebranding as a music-based social network, and simply posting homemade videos on YouTube remains the easiest and cheapest way to gain exposure. Just ask Justin Beiber.Yet Wishna remains confident Rock City Club will offer more value and real results than its rivals.”There are a lot of firms who do a little of what we do, but there’s not one firm that does everything we do. We took a broken model, found ways to fix it and enhance the experience for the artists and the fans,” said Wishna.